The Mecca Joint Deterrence Agreement, a trilateral defense pact between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, has sparked interest in expanding its membership. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has expressed a vision to grow the alliance, suggesting that more countries could join under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's leadership. This expansion could significantly impact regional security dynamics, particularly in the Middle East. Here's an analysis of potential new members and the implications of their inclusion.
Egypt: A Natural Partner?
Egypt has been publicly identified as a potential candidate for membership. Fidan described Egypt as a "natural partner," indicating a strong interest in its inclusion. However, several factors could influence Egypt's decision. Firstly, Egypt already maintains a solid working relationship with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey through the R4 group, which consults on regional issues. This existing partnership may provide a foundation for further cooperation.
However, analysts like Karim Elgendy and Ahmed Aboudouh caution that Egypt may be cautious about the potential military obligations and strategic implications of joining a binding defense treaty. Egypt's peace treaties and aid relationship with the United States could be at stake, as the pact's language and commitments might not align with its interests. Egypt's decision will likely hinge on the level of strategic value it perceives and its ability to manage complex diplomatic relations.
Gulf States: A Possible Expansion?
Several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members have been suggested as potential candidates for joining the pact. Qatar and Kuwait, in particular, are seen as "close to all three signatories" and have strong motives for additional security measures. The recent US-Israel war on Iran and Israel's strike on Doha have left these countries feeling exposed, making them potential candidates for joining the alliance.
However, Elgendy expresses skepticism about the pact transforming into a broader bloc, suggesting that it will grow on a case-by-case basis, shaped by each country's risk assessment. This indicates that the expansion may be selective and not necessarily a unified bloc.
Other Potential Candidates
Ali Bakir, a professor of international relations, identifies Azerbaijan, Syria, and Jordan as potential candidates for relatively quick inclusion. These countries may have strategic interests aligned with the pact's goals and could benefit from the collective security it offers.
In conclusion, the expansion of the Mecca Joint Deterrence Agreement is a complex and evolving process. While Egypt, the Gulf states, and other countries like Azerbaijan, Syria, and Jordan are potential candidates, the decision to join will depend on various factors, including strategic value, diplomatic considerations, and the level of risk each country is willing to take on. The pact's future growth will likely be shaped by these countries' individual risk calculations and their unique regional dynamics.
